would have doneは“推測の結果”（１）

英文読解

小説『９Dragons』のなかで検視結果を刑事に伝える検視官のセリフに、こんな文章があります。

  • “I believe he would have indeed been paralyzed. But the projectile lodged in the fourth thoracic vertebra, cutting the cord there. This would have certainly caused paralysis, but it would begin at that point. The arms could still function. It would be a matter of time. As I said, his body would have ceased function inside a minute.”


―Michael Connelly, 9Dragons, p.81

ここで「would have done＝反実仮想＝実際は違った」と暗記していると、文中の３箇所の“would have done”は意味が通じません。
なぜならいずれも検視官は「そうだったはずだ」と自信ありげに語っている場面だからです。


辞書的には“would have done”は“過去への推量”という用法もあると書いてあるわけですが、有名な“反実仮想”に比べると実にマイナーな扱いです。


それでは果たしてこの２つをどのように区別したらよいのでしょうか。また、お互いどのような関係になっているのでしょうか。
そんななんとなくとっつきづらい“would have done”について書きます。






１．will have done

（１）現在から見た未来のある時点についての推測
Will have done‐English grammar lessons

We can use 'will have done' to talk about what will have been achieved by a certain moment in time.

これは受験で出てくるいわゆる未来完了形です。
いついつまでには〜していることになるだろう、というアレですね。


Either way, your spectator experience will have been a fun one,‐WordReference.com

  • Sure, your team might lose, but then again, your team might win. Either way, your spectator experience will have been a fun one, and you will have avoided being merely a passive observer.


Can you tell me why this tense is used and the difference in meaning, when it is used as "will be a fun one, and you will avoid being merely a passive observer"?

別にwill have doneじゃなくてただのwill doでいいんじゃないの？という質問。

In this particular example the "specific time in the future" is the time after the game when the result is known and you will already have experienced the game.

ここでは“試合後”という未来の一時点が暗示されているのでwill have doneを使っているんだという答え。


（２）現在から見た過去の出来事に対する推測
Will have done‐English grammar lessons

We can also use 'will have done' to predict what we think has already happened at present.

すでに起こった過去の出来事に対する推測にもwill have doneが使えます。
本来、willは時制に関係なくただ何かを推測しているだけです。


get to know somebody??‐WordReference.com

Secondly, this is not a chat forum. You will have seen the rules as you registered. You are asked to post here using standard English forms, which includes using capital letters where appropriate.

“登録したときに見たと思うけど。”というわけで、同じく過去の出来事を推測しています。






２．would have done
would have doneには大きく分けて以下の３つのパターンがあります。

  • 未来完了が時制の一致で過去形になったもの
  • いわゆる“仮定法過去完了”の帰結節（反実仮想）
  • 事実を元にした過去の出来事に対する推測

（このほかにも整理しきれていない使用例があるのですが今回は割愛）


２つ目と３つ目は同じように過去の出来事に対して推測しているのですが、現実に沿っているか沿っていないかによって逆の結論に達する点が特徴的です。


（１）未来完了が時制の一致で過去形になったもの
Would have done‐ englishforums.com

  • “When I am thirty, I will have been married 3 times”
  • He said that when he was thirty he would have been married 3 times.

先ほど見た未来完了が時制の一致で過去形になったものです。
過去形で語られるの多い小説の地の文においては、未来完了といえども見た目は過去形になってしまうので非常に紛らわしいです。


（２）“仮定法過去完了”の帰結節
Past Unreal Conditional‐Englishpage.com

The Past Unreal Conditional is used to talk about imaginary situations in the past. You can describe what you would have done differently or how something could have happened differently if circumstances had been different.


Examples:

  • If I had owned a car, I would have driven to work. But I didn't own one, so I took the bus.

受験で出てくるいわゆる“仮定法過去完了”（過去の出来事を仮定して、そしたらこうだったのになあと思うこと）です。
事実に反した仮定をしますので、起こりえなかった事実とか反実仮想などと呼ばれます。
“imaginary situations”となっているところが重要。


would have been‐WordReference.com

  • He's outclassed and outmatched by every member of the strong supporting cast, any of whom would have been more believable as Stauffenberg: Kenneth Branagh, Tom Wilkinson, Terence Stamp and Bill Nighy as fellow German officers, even Eddie Izzard, who's a unique and unexpected choice


There is a conditional statement, but the "if" is implied, as is quite often the case. "If any other member of the cast had played Stauffenberg they would have been more believable as the character".

“仮定法”というとすぐに反実仮想と思うかもしれませんが、一つ注意が必要です。
話者はif節の仮定が事実に反していることは知っていますが、仮定から帰結節にいたるまでの推測の流れそのものを“ありえない”と否定しているわけではありません。
むしろ、起こらなかったことだとは知りながらも、条件さえ満たせばそうなったはずだと推測しているのです。


would have been‐WordReference.com

  • To be fair, officials are calling for more regulation. Indeed, on Thursday Tim Geithner, the Treasury secretary, laid out plans for enhanced regulation that would have been considered radical not long ago.

「ちょっと前には行き過ぎだと考えられていたはずの」ということで、実際は実施されなかったことを知っていながら、でももし実施されていたらそうだったはず、という推測をしています。


（３）事実を元にした過去の出来事に対する推測
would have doneで過去の出来事について実際こんなことが起こっただろうという推測を表現できます。
辞書でいうところの“過去への推量”です。


＜“推測の”would have doneの流れ＞
１）対象は過去の出来事
２）いま自分が知っている事実・世間一般の常識が基礎
３）そこから推測する
４）きっとこうだったに違いない
５）ただし事の真偽を自分は直接目にしていない
「あれだけ〜だったんだから、理屈から考えてあの後こうなったに違いないよ。まあ、実際に自分の目で見たわけじゃないから証拠はないけどね。」という感じです。


would have been‐WordReference.com

  • ... Many of the town's buildings were shrines, or places of worship. Some people--both men and women--would have been in charge of leading religious ceremonies.


I don't understand the meaning of 'would have been'.
Shouldn't it be 'might have been'? since it seems to me it talks about a probability, something might have happened in the past.


I know 'would have been' can be the third conditional.
And I learned this structure implies 'the thing' did not actually happen, just exists in our immagination or something. isn't it?


People being in charge of ceremonies, --- it could have happened, it might have happened, but, why, it would have happened?

この質問者も混乱している一人で、「would have beenは反実仮想だって習ったけどこの例文は実際に起こりえたという文脈だよね？」と言っています。

It is speculating about what "would have happened", what would have been the normal situation. There is nothing conditional involved, but it is conjecture, just as the second part of a conditional statement is conjecture.

この質問に対しての回答は、would have doneはここでは仮定じゃなくて推測だよ、というものです。
最後にさりげなく「仮定法も帰結節は推測だよね」といっているところが大事です。


また別の例。
would have done the same‐WordReference.com

  • The Templars always carried folded spare bunners in case the first were lost, and the German Military Orders would have done the same.

…（中略）…
Instead of saying “the Germans did the same...” the author has used the modal would to indicate a degree of possibility/probability.
The author might have chosen “the Germans might have done the same...” or “the Germans must have done the same...” or “the Germans could have done the same...”
But he wanted to say “the Germans probably did the same...” and so he used “would have done.”

“probably”ということはかなり確信を持っている状態。
これを「もしかしたら〜だったかもしれない」と考えたらちょっと弱すぎだと思います。


さらに別の例。
Stormed the building: why would have done sth in a newspaper´s report‐‐WordReference.com

  • It's believed members of the SAS's Squadron were involved in the operation. ANALYSTS said they would have staked out the house, using heat sensors to work out where the hostages were held. They would have then stormed the building and pulled the captives to safety.


The analysts were probably quoted because there were no witnesses to the operation who were willing to discuss it.
So: if this operation unfolded in the usual way, the squadron would have done....
We don't know for certain.

過去の出来事で、話者は事件の全貌を目にしていない、突入前の資料を元に推測した、という流れ。


would have been seen/ would be seen‐WordReference.com

If the telephone rings, and a man says "That will be my mother", that's a suspicion or a surmise, not a prediction. To be less stark, and more clear that it is not a prediction, he could say "That would be my mother", with a slightly more tentative meaning.
…（中略）…
I dare say a sentence like "that would be his mother calling" also suggests a conditional with an implied "were we free to presume, based on what we know is usual, we could say we know that".


To surmise about the past, we can say "That would have been his mother calling", meaning that we expect that it was his mother.

すでに自分が知っていることを元に過去の出来事について推測した、という流れ。
“expect”とあることからもわかるように、すでにセットされた過去のある一点の状態からそのまま何事もなければまあ普通はこれこれこういう状態になるもんだよね常識的に考えて、という推測をしているということです。





use of would+have+past participle form of verb.‐WordReference.com

  • “first a dead body expert would have expelled viscera of the dead body then.......”

Aforesaid sentence is about mummification depicted in National Geographic magazine written by a South American mummy specialist.


…（中略）…

  • It means we're perhaps not completely sure what happened, but here's what very probably happened.
  • Certainly, "would have" is used in situations such as the following: A detective, who is trying to solve a crime, retraces the footsteps of a murdered woman, and says: “Now, she would have opened this door, and then she would have come inside and looked around. She would have been surprised to see that there was no one home...” This “would have” is indeed to do with conjecture and less than 100% certainty.

一番下の例文はまさに刑事ものの推理場面。
そして一番上のナショジオの引用文はどうやら過去の決まりきった手順を感じさせるらしく、過去の習慣を表す“would”として受け取られるようです。


Would have‐WordReference.com

  • The second largest volcanic eruption in human history was much larger than previously thought, scientists say. The massive Bronze Age eruption of Thera near Greece would have devastated ancient civilisations in the region. Ash would likely have plunged much of the Mediterranean into darkness, and tsunami would have wrecked local ports.


…（中略）…


You can use "would have" like this for things that definitely happened, so it is not a matter of "probability".

  • “William the conqueror would have slept with at least 20 courtiers in the same room.” the unstated cause (because everyone did in those days).


And for your example

  • The eruption would have devastated ancient civilisations in the region (because such an eruption could have no other consequence).

事実から推測。


最後にwould have doneが文脈によってどうとでも解釈できてしまうという例を紹介します。
Conditional: If he had watched the football match, he would have known the result now.‐WordReference.com

  • ' If he had watched the football match, he would have known the result by now.'

This is just stating that if he wasn't such a bonehead..and would have watched the football game yesterday..like the rest of the world did...instead of going out looking for a pair of orange pants...he would not have to be running around..bugging everyone today asking..'What was the score, ah come on someone please tell me the score?'


…（中略）…


This is a good solution because everyone's happy. You have the pluperfect followed by the conditional perfect, and then because "by now" means that it must have happened at some time in the past before now there is no problem combining this grammatical sequence with the sense of the sentence.

今回は“仮定法過去完了”であることを明示したIf節があるので、（２）の反実仮想になります。（“実際に彼は結果を知らない”）
If節がなければ“未来完了の過去への推測”が時制の一致で過去形になった（１）のパターンと同形です。（“もう彼は結果を知っているだろう”）


そして、If節をなくして適切な文脈を足してやりさえすれば、“もう結果を知っているはず”という今回の（３）のパターンとして解釈することもできてしまいます。
このように、would have doneは過去への推測、ただし話者がどう思って推測しているかはひとえに文脈しだいということになります。






３．“仮定法過去完了”と“過去への推量”
受験で覚える“仮定法”＝反実仮想と考えるなら、辞書通り“would have done”には“過去への推量”の意味があると覚えることになります。
しかし、仮定法は反実仮想とは限らないよね、という考えからすれば、“would have done”に反実仮想と推量の２つの意味があると覚える必要はなくなります。
文法は理解の方便なのでどちらでもいいと思いますが、私は後者の考え方です。
理由は以下の通りです。


１）“過去への推量”“反実仮想”どちらの用法も「Xが成り立つならばYである」という論理を使って推測している点では全く同じ。
２）結果が現実か反現実かはともかく、話者がその推測の流れそのものに対して疑問を持っていない点では全く同じ。
３）文中に出てくる“would have done”がどちらの意味になるかは、なによりも文脈によってしか判断できない。
４）「未来完了の過去形・反実仮想・過去への推量」と場合分けしなくても、「未来完了の過去形・過去の出来事への推測（反実仮想かどうかは文脈しだい）」というように単純化できるから。


そして実際、英文を読むときはいちいちこの２つの用法を区別しながら読んだりもしません。
というわけで、少なくとも“反実仮想”と“過去への推量”の２つの用法は辞書に書いてあるような別々の関係ではなく根っこは同じものであって、推測そのものに対して話者がかなりの自信を持っているというのが実際のところだと思います。


この視点からあらためて“仮定法過去完了”の一部の用法を見てみると、“仮定法”と推量という２つの用法の境界が実はかなりあいまいなことが分かります。
would + 動詞の原形 と would have done のちがい‐教えて！goo

  • The city’s proposal to annex the subdivision was opposed by the residents, since it would have led to higher taxes.

現実にはその区域の併合はなかったから増税にもならなかった。
けれども、果たして筆者の言いたいことはそこなんでしょうか？
この場合、併合ということになれば増税になる、という推測について筆者は疑いを持っていないと思います。
となればこの用法が反実仮想だと指摘することにあまり意味がありません。


英文解釈できないくせに直訳できるわけがない【追記・訂正あり】‐Sacred Journey

Four hanged on Christmas Day


TOKYO Four prisoners, including two men in their seventies, were hanged on Christmas Day as the Japanese Government ended a 15-month moratorium on the death penalty.
The hangings were the first since September 2005, when a convicted murderer was executed. The death penalty is supported widely in Japan and analysts said that the Government wanted to carry out executions in 2006, which would have been the first year without hangings since 1992.

「もし2006年に死刑執行がなければ、2006年は1992年以来の死刑がない年になるはずだった」
現実には2006年末に死刑が執行されました。
これも文章の冒頭でその通り書いていますので、「もし〜だったらなあ」という気持ちがどれほど含まれているのか疑問です。


Kennedy Assassination Photo Gallery‐The Kennedy Assassination

Henry Wade, Dallas District Attorney who would have prosecuted Oswald

「オズワルドを起訴するはずだった地方検事」。
典型的な反実仮想だけれども、べつに気にしなくてもいいのでは？


Henry Wade‐Wikipedia

Wade lost the opportunity to try Lee Harvey Oswald for Kennedy's murder when Dallas nightclub operator Jack Ruby shot the suspect just two days later, but became nationally recognized for prosecuting Ruby himself for Oswald's murder.

※上のキャプションは「オズワルドが殺されてしまったので幻の訴追に」、という事実を知っているので反実仮想であることが分かる。
知らないと意味がとれない。


潜在仮定法‐教えて！goo

  • More and more husbands are willingly sharing the homework that their fathers would have rejected as unmanly.

同じく“仮定法過去完了”で説明できるけれども、反実仮想であることにこだわらなくていい例。
筆者が言いたいことは「〜だったにちがいない」。


if-clause‐教えて！goo

  • We are all aware that technology has created a world that even our parents would not have believed possible and that many of them would have contemplated with alarm.

“would have done”の否定文についてはまた後でまとめますが、この例文も「でも実際は違った」ということが言いたいわけではないはずです。



would have beenの用法‐教えて！goo

  • I've gotten pessimistic, and I'm worried about something I would never have been concerned about before.

“仮定法過去完了”だけれども“反実仮想”で理解する必要がないパターン。
この否定文の形も別の機会に。


Past Unreal Conditional + Continuous‐Englishpage.com

  • If you had gone to their house last night, Bob would have been reading the newspaper, Nancy would have been talking on the phone and the kids would have been watching TV. They always do the same things.

同様のパターン。
“あなた”が昨夜彼らの家に行ったかと言われれば、行ってません。
しかし、ポイントは知識・常識から推測して「もし行ったらこうこうこうだったはずだ」という論理を組み立てているということです。


Why "that would be me"? (part 2)‐Language Log

  • If he had escaped by jumping out of the window he would have left footprints in the flower-bed beneath. And that is precisely what happened.

これも同様のパターン。
“反実仮想”vs“過去への推量”という２分法では理解できません。




ここまで見てきたように、「“仮定法過去完了”＝“would have done”＝反実仮想」と考えた場合でさえ素直に解釈できないケースがたくさんあります。
それならば、仮定法（subjunctive）という大きな枠の中で考えて、“would have done”は話者の“推測の結果”を表したものだと考えた方がすっきりするということが分かると思います。
少なくとも「“仮定法過去完了”＝“would have done”＝反実仮想」と捉えているとたくさんの例外を作り出してしまいます。
（次回につづく）